Property Insights | Settlement trends continue the shift towards South-East QLD, Perth & Adelaide
By PEXA • 29 Apr 2025
This report details the latest property settlement trends across Australia’s five mainland states, NSW, VIC, QLD, WA and SA. Over 95% of all property transactions nationally are covered in this report, including all digital and paper-based settlements for residential and commercial property, but excluding non-monetary property settlements such as family transfers, inheritances or gifts.
Key Findings: Mar-25 Qtr
- Nationally, there were 156,573 sale settlements in the Mar-25 Qtr, up a modest 1.2% compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
- The Mar-25 Qtr included several disruptive events, such as Cyclone Alfred, as well as the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to reduce the cash rate by 25 basis points in February.
- QLD had the highest volume of settlements (43,530), but VIC and SA recorded the highest growth (+4.1% and +4.3%) from same quarter last year. However, NSW and WA lagged behind the other states, growing by 0.2%y/y and -0.2%y/y respectively.
- Property prices continued to climb in the quarter. As such, growth in aggregate value spent on property eclipsed growth in settlement volumes. $158.5 billion of property was settled, an increase of 5.3% from the previous year. In particular, the total spent on property in QLD, WA and SA grew by 9-15% year-on-year.
Macroeconomic drivers for Australia’s property markets in the Mar-25 Qtr
- GDP per capita grew by 0.1%q/q in the Dec-24 Qtr, after seven consecutive quarters of negative growth. GDP grew by 0.6%q/q and 1.3%y/y, as household consumption grew by 0.4%q/q. Growth in discretionary spending (+0.4%q/q) was marginally surpassed by growth in essential spending (+0.5%q/q), supported by the seasonal uplift through the Black Friday/Cyber Monday and Boxing Day sales in the Dec-24 Qtr. This rebound in household consumption has been supported by solid labour market outcomes, with strong employment growth, a low unemployment rate, and participation rates at historic highs.
- Increasing global uncertainty has ramped up volatility in other asset classes. The introduction of US tariffs and corresponding retaliatory tariffs has ramped up financial market volatility, dampened consumer sentiment and dropped the value of the Australian dollar against all other major currencies.
- A 25-basis point decrease in the cash rate supports improving household disposable income. With the cash rate being lowered by 25 basis points, household disposable income for mortgaged households would save $80 a month on an outstanding $500,000 loan, giving households modest mortgage relief.
- There are signs that the housing supply-demand imbalance will improve. Building approvals for new dwellings increased in all mainland states in the Dec-24 Qtr, compared to the previous year, with WA having the strongest growth (up 38.5%y/y), and VIC having the weakest growth (up 7.7%y/y). Similarly, dwelling commencements, which had been declining year-on-year since 2021, showed signs of improvement in the latest data release for the Sep-24 Qtr. In its February Statement of Monetary Policy (SOMP), the RBA estimated that the average household size has slowly increased from its COVID-level lows, particularly in the capital cities, partially alleviating housing demand.
- Housing inflation is slowing. Price growth for new dwellings has slowed, and anecdotal evidence from the RBA liaison program suggested that builders are offering discounts for new builds in response to weak demand. The cost of building materials also remains high, but the pace of the price growth has slowed. For rentals, inflation was flat in Sydney and Melbourne, but still rose, albeit more slowly, in Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth.
Seasonal drivers: Mar-25 Qtr
- Following the spring selling season in the December quarter, the following March quarter is consistently a slow quarter for property settlements. Given the Easter break in 2024 fell in the March quarter, sale settlement volumes in the Mar-25 Qtr were 2.7% higher than a year ago. Most settlement volume metrics would show negative quarter on quarter growth in the March quarter compared to the corresponding previous quarter.
- Cyclone Alfred, which most affected South-East QLD and the Northern Coast of NSW in early March, is likely to have an impact on the timing of property settlements and refinancing, but its full impact is yet to be realised. Settlement volumes in the month of March 2025 were 1.5% higher in South-East QLD than in March 2024. Cyclone Alfred will likely have an impact on the timing of settlements, as the number of open houses, inspections and auctions at the start of the sale/settlement process would be delayed.
- Furthermore, as of 2 April 2025, the Insurance Council of Australia (ICA) reported that a total of 95,000 insurance claims have been submitted in the direct aftermath of Cyclone Alfred in QLD alone – of which approximately 82,000 were for residential properties and 6,000 for commercial properties. If the owners of these impacted properties were intending to sell, or were in the settlement process, this could potentially have an impact on future settlement volumes.
QLD recorded the highest volume residential sale settlements despite impact of natural disasters
Settlement volumes have recently been stronger in NSW than VIC, but residential sale settlements grew in VIC by 4.0%y/y – the second strongest out of all states (following SA).
Median residential property prices in QLD have surged far beyond prices in its eastern counterparts, growing by 12.3%y/y and 13.6%y/y in Greater Brisbane and Regional Queensland respectively.
In QLD, first home buyers are eligible for the stamp duty concession if they purchase a property at a price of $800,000 or below. The share of sale settlements under this threshold has fallen from 70% to 65% of all residential transactions in regional QLD, and from 64% to 53% in Greater Brisbane – a clear signal of decreasing housing affordability in the state.
Compared to the same quarter in the previous year, residential settlement growth was stronger in the regions compared to the capital cities.
- In the list of top 10 suburbs in NSW, there’s a mix of outer growth suburbs on the Greater Sydney fringe, inner-city suburbs and regional towns in Port Macquarie, Dubbo and Orange.
- In VIC, the same growth suburbs in Melbourne’s west, north and south-east appear in the top 10 list – with the exception of the Melbourne CBD.
- Cyclone Alfred hasn’t dented property interests in South-East QLD – as the suburbs in the region dominated the top 10 list for the Mar-25 Qtr.
- Greater Perth is booming in WA, consistent with evidence that suggests investors have flocked to the smaller capital cities.
- Property settlements in regional centres such as Mount Barker, Mount Gambier and Murray Bridge to the east of Adelaide and Port Lincoln, west of the Spencer Gulf, were fairly popular in the Mar-25 Qtr.
In the Mar-25 Qtr, $140.7 billion was spent on residential property over the five mainland states
- There’s quite a divide between NSW and VIC, and QLD, WA and SA. Growth in aggregate value for residential settlements in the latter states increased by 12-15% compared to the same quarter the previous year.
- Prices grew more slowly in Greater Sydney, as housing becomes more unaffordable, and is reflected in the consistent exit of residents to regional NSW or other states. Regional towns for homebuyers with a smaller deposit were particularly popular in 2024.
A total of 6,580 settlements for commercial properties were settled across the eastern states
- Commercial property settlement volumes in QLD have recently overtaken VIC, likely a sign of property interests that have been diverted to QLD from VIC and NSW. Commercial settlement volumes in QLD are up 15.2% compared to the same period in the previous year.
- The commercial property sector seems particularly sluggish in NSW compared to its other eastern state counterparts. Whereas QLD and VIC performed stronger compared to the prior year, commercial settlement volumes in NSW declined across the state.
- NSW settled the largest amount on commercial property ($7.7 billion), followed by VIC ($5.6 billion) and then QLD ($4.5 billion).
For further enquiries about this report or other property and mortgage insights, please contact us at research@pexa.com.au.
For media enquiries, please contact:
Liz Deegan – Senior Advisor, Cato and Clive
E: liz@catoandclive.com
M: +61 418 650 936
Clare Gill – General Manager, Corporate Affairs, PEXA
E: clare.gill@pexa.com.au
M: +61 467 284 154
Copyright
© 2025 PEXA. PEXA and its licensors own all rights (including copyright) in this document. No content may be copied, modified, published or distributed to any other party with PEXA’s prior written permission. All Rights Reserved.
PEXA Disclaimers
This document is general in nature. It doesn’t constitute advice, doesn’t take into account your circumstances, and shouldn’t be relied upon. Please seek professional advice where appropriate. All information is provided “as is” without representation, guarantee or warranty of any kind, whether expressed or implied, including any warranty that the information is accurate, current, reliable, complete, or suitable for any purpose, or any guarantee that any forward-looking statements, including estimates, projections and opinions will be achieved or will prove to be correct. Any estimates, projections and opinions are based on assumptions and events that may be subject to change (without notice). To the full extent permitted by law, PEXA excludes all liability for any loss or damage however arising out of or in connection to this document, including in relation to reliance by you or any third party on the information contained in this document. By accessing and using this document, you acknowledge and agree to the following additional disclaimers that apply to information in the document from PEXA’s licensors.
South Australia
WARNING
The information contained in this dataset is extracted from the records of land status and cadastral boundary definition held by the Government of the State South Australia (the “State”). The information is not represented to be accurate complete, or suitable for any purpose, at the time of its supply by the State, and may have changed since the date of supply by the State. The software by which the information is provided is not represented to be error free. No responsibility is accepted by the State for any reliance placed by any person upon the information, or the software by which it is provided. Persons acquiring or using the information and its associated software must exercise their independent judgement in doing so.
COPYRIGHT
Copyright in this information remains with the Crown in right of the State of South Australia. The information is reproduced under licence from the Crown.
PRIVACY
The information contained in this dataset must not be used for the purposes of compiling contact lists, whether personalised or not.