Property Insights | Settlement trends diverged across states in 2024

This report details the latest property settlement trends across Australia’s five mainland states, NSW, VIC, QLD, WA and SA. Over 95% of all property transactions nationally are covered in this report, including all digital and paper-based settlements for residential and commercial property, but excluding non-monetary property settlements such as family transfers, inheritances or gifts.  

Key Findings: Calendar Year 2024

• 723,312 properties were settled across Australia’s five mainland states in 2024, an increase of 7.8% from the previous calendar year. 
• QLD retained the lead for the highest number of property settlements with 198,019 in 2024, followed by NSW (194,729) and VIC (187,944).  
• A total of $714.7 billion was spent on property purchases in 2024, 17.3% higher than in 2023. This increase in aggregate value came despite declining or stagnating property prices in some capital cities during 2024. 
• The annual total number of settlements in 2024 was 13.2% less than the COVID-related peak in activity in 2021, but 14.4% higher than in 2020. 
• The aggregate value of settlements reached a new peak in 2024 and was 64.2% higher than in 2020.  

Key findings: December quarter 2024 

• Settlement volumes in the Dec-24 Qtr were 5.9% higher than the previous quarter and 3.2% higher than one year earlier. However, this was lower than the previous peak in Dec-21 Qtr.
• The aggregate value of settlements in the Dec-24 Qtr was 10.8% higher than the previous quarter and 12.0% higher than one year earlier.
• Settlement volumes during the December quarter usually reflect the spring peak in selling season trends three months earlier. December typically sees a higher number of listings, sales and settlements than other quarters, followed by a weaker March quarter as settlement activity subsides in the first months of the new year.
• The annual spring selling season peak is less pronounced in QLD’s property market compared to NSW, VIC and SA. Reflecting this, QLD settlement volumes grew by just 2.9%q/q in the Dec-24 Qtr compared to 7 to 9%q/q in other states. 

Macroeconomic drivers for Australia’s property markets in 2024

• Economic growth slowed noticeably through 2024, with real GDP growing by just 0.3%q/q and 0.7%y/y in the Sep-24 Qtr, despite support from income tax cuts from 1 July 2024, energy cost subsidies, decelerating inflation and a stable interest rate environment. Australia has been in a ‘per capita recession’ since early 2023, with real GDP, real household income and household consumption all fell on a per capita basis. This has undermined household and business confidence and willingness to invest. Private sector investment and activity stalled during 2024, with government spending on public services and infrastructure construction (by Federal and State Governments) largely supporting domestic growth.  
• The labour market remained remarkably resilient throughout 2024. The unemployment rate remained low, at around 4.0% through the year to November 2024 and the underemployment rate (those in work but seeking more hours) declined to 6.1%. This resilience in labour market outcomes has supported the housing market and helped to counteract the ongoing weakness in household disposable incomes; becoming (or remaining) unemployed is the number one risk event that can prevent people from buying a home and/or being able to service their mortgage. 
• Adult population grew at a record rate of 2.8% in the year to June 2024, following growth of 2.6% to June 2023, due to very rapid net migration. Surging arrivals plus fewer departures has added over 1.1 million adults (aged 15+ years) in just two years. While some of this growth has been a ‘catch-up’ following the COVID disruptions to normal migration flows, this rapid pace of growth in such a short timeframe has exacerbated Australia’s housing demand and supply imbalance, as the nation has struggled to house so many new residents in the right locations. 
• Average household size – the average number of people per home – dropped significantly during COVID, exacerbating a long-term trend towards smaller households and adding an estimated million homes to national demand (RBA estimate). This trend only partially unwound during 2024 and so more homes are required, just to meet current demand. 
• New home construction is not keeping pace with ongoing strong demand. New housing commencements in Jun-24 Qtr totalled 40,293, well below the quantity needed to meet existing demand, or to meet the long-term National Housing Accord target of around 60,000 new homes per quarter. Construction delays, high building costs and a growing number of insolvencies for homebuilders have pushed more prospective homebuyers to purchase established properties, rather than build their own.
• Australian interest rates were stable during 2024, after a period of rapid increases in 2023. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held the cash rate steady at 4.35% throughout 2024, providing a stable interest rate environment for the property market, albeit at levels that many households have found challenging. While the RBA was not able to cut the Cash Rate during 2024, it has held it at lower levels over a longer period than in many comparable developed economies in response to a longer period (and a later but lower peak) of above-target domestic inflation. Mortgage default rates have remained close to historic lows, while sale prices cooled but did drop in most markets, in response to higher interest rates.
• Changes to state-based property taxes, transaction charges and regulations may have influenced the timing and type of property transactions in some locations during 2024. While it is not possible to quantify the impact of individual policy changes, anecdotal evidence suggests that some changes to property taxes and regulations may have influenced the number and composition of transactions in VIC and QLD, with flow-on effects for other states’ property markets. For example, property sales by investors seem to have increased in Victoria in response to changes to taxation and rental regulations for residential property, with other states reporting an increase in interstate investor purchases. 

NSW recorded the strongest growth in residential sale settlement numbers in 2024

• Volume of residential sale settlements (CY24): 686,040
• Residential property settlements in the five mainland states grew 8.0% from CY23. 
• Other than NSW, only residential sale settlements in WA recorded above average growth compared to the rest of the country. 

• Median sale prices dropped during 2024 in VIC, with falls in Greater Melbourne as well as in regional VIC, likely reflecting the composition of properties that were sold (e.g. more sales in outer suburbs and for apartments, at lower price points). VIC was the only large state in which the number of settlements for residential properties priced under $750,000 increased year-on-year in the Dec-24 Qtr. 

• A broader recovery in the Australian property market resulted in all regions experiencing positive residential sale settlement growth (despite median price reductions in VIC).
• The most popular location was Greater Sydney, where residential settlements grew by 13.3% to 116,360 in CY24, much greater than in regional NSW (which was up 7.1%).
• Regional Victoria lagged behind other states, with residential settlement volumes only growing by 2.6% from CY23. However, residential property sales in Greater Melbourne grew by 7.9%, likely buoyed by higher listing volumes as landlords offloaded their rental properties and first home buyers responded to (gently) falling prices in established suburbs. 

• Postcodes that feature on the top-10 lists for each state reflect those with a high level of residential development and thus, reflect where new housing supply is being added.
• The experts at .id have recently released a report on how local councils can better reflect local community needs when planning for new housing and infrastructure development. 

In CY24, more was spent on residential property in QLD than in VIC 

• Aggregate value of residential sale settlements (CY24): $630.7 billion
• The aggregate value of residential sale settlements was highest in NSW ($230.3 billion). 
• Given that median sale prices are now higher in QLD – and the total volume of sales is also higher – it’s a given that the value of residential property was sold in QLD ($152.4 billion) was higher than in VIC ($147.7 billion). 

A total of 30,715 settlements for commercial properties were settled across the eastern states 

• Volume of commercial sale settlements (CY24): 30,175
• Compared to the residential property market, the Australian commercial property market showed modest growth. 

• Growth in commercial property settlements was highest in regional NSW (up 9.5% from CY23) and was lowest in regional VIC (down 2.1% from CY23). 

$78.4 billion was spent on commercial property in the eastern states in FY24 

• The aggregate value of commercial settlements grew strongly in NSW and QLD, up 19.5% and 19.8% respectively. 

For further enquiries about this report or other property and mortgage insights, please contact us at research@pexa.com.au. 

For media enquiries, please contact:  

Kate Prigg – Corporate Affairs Manager, PEXA  
E: kate.prigg@pexa.com.au  
M: 0497 595 580  

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