Solid growth in residential and commercial sales and uplift in new loan volumes in September 2024 quarter – new PEXA research

The latest PEXA Property and Mortgage Insights reports shows momentum continues to build in the national property market, with solid growth in sales and mortgage activity in the three months to 30 September 2024.

In property, Australia’s mainland states saw a total of 183,288 settlements with a total value of $178.3 billion in the quarter, an 11.1 per cent increase in volume and a 19.8 per cent increase in value from the September 2023 quarter. Queensland again recorded the highest number of residential settlements, while Brisbane maintained its position as Australia’s second most expensive capital city, behind Sydney. 

Across the mainland states, all capital cities and regional areas experienced near double-digit growth compared to the September 2023 quarter, with the exception regional Victoria. Regional WA reported standout growth, with residential volumes surging by 19.5%.

In NSW, the top 10 postcodes for residential settlements were all within Greater Sydney, with areas such as postcodes 2765 (Marsden Park) and 2570 (Oran Park) in Sydney’s west continuing to attract significant interest due to their large-scale greenfield housing developments. So too in Victoria, with outer Melbourne postcodes 3064 (Craigieburn) and 3029 (Tarneit) performing strongly, while in Queensland the top postcodes were predominantly located on the coast. In South Australia the top two postcodes were the outer Adelaide suburbs of 5115 (Munno Para West) and 5114 (Andrews Farm), followed by 5251 (Mount Barker) in the Adelaide Hills.

Meanwhile, the commercial property market has also bounced after a sluggish start to 2024, with the largest improvements in NSW, up 10.3%, and VIC up 10.7%. In value terms, the total of commercial property sales in NSW, VIC and QLD was $18.9 billion, an 8.5% increase on the September 2023 quarter.

In mortgage trends, the number of home loans issued increased by 16.2% to a total of 137,186, with more than 96% of these loans for residential property.  Queensland continues to grow at pace, with the highest number of new residential loans at 36,078 loans, an increase of 19.7% on September 2023, closely followed by NSW, with 35,407 new loans, an increase of 17.2%.

PEXA Group’s Chief Economist, Julie Toth, said the reports show that demand for new housing continues to outstrip supply, resulting in an increase in more buyers seeking existing properties and prices, with strong growth in both capital cities and regional areas.

“Growth in new housing supply – including housing and apartments – has continued to lag behind growth in demand for new housing nationally in most locations,” Ms Toth said.

“New homes are taking longer and costing more to build than in the past. High labour and material costs have added to the rising price of new builds. These capacity constraints are pushing more buyers into the market for existing home and pushing home prices higher.”

Ms Toth said strong population growth and low household sizes also continued to support strong underlying demand for housing. In terms of mortgage trends, Ms Toth said consumer sentiment was tentatively improving in response to better conditions, but debt-related sentiment remained highly cautious.

Residential property highlights

• Queensland again recorded the highest number of residential settlements but all states posted a strong result in the September 2024 quarter compared to the year prior.
• Over 48,361 residential sale settlements completed in Queensland, ahead of Victoria with 44,482 and NSW with 47,467.
• Over $57.8 bn was spent on residential property in NSW during the September 2024 quarter (20.0% higher than the previous corresponding period). Queensland recorded the second highest spend on residential property with $39.8 (up 27.2%).

Mortgage trend highlights:

• New loan volumes were highest in Queensland (37,797), followed by NSW (35,407).
• Queensland not only recorded the highest volume of residential new loans, but also had the strongest growth, 19.7%, compared to the September 2023 quarter.
• NSW and SA also performed well, where growth in residential new loans was 17.2% and 17.3% respectively.
• The proportion of settlements with a loan was lowest in NSW and Queensland, and highest in WA and Victoria.
• Across our three largest states, a total of 4,387 commercial loans were recorded, an increase of 15.2% from the September 2023 quarter.

Full Property Insights report is available here

Full Mortgage Insights report is available here